The start of the Canadian dollar Downtrend

27/05/2021

The Canadian dollar is considered as one of the most important commodity currencies, as the Canadian economy is completely linked to the performance of commodities, especially the oil. If we notice the chart below it shows the performance of the CRB commodity index, and it shows that the commodity market had its best performance in forty years.

This was reflected in all the commodity currencies, including the Canadian dollar which has achieved a 13.58% rise against the US dollar since the beginning of this year (2021) as the following chart shows.

However, we see that this supremacy may decline in the coming days, as the following chart shows the forward contracts for the Canadian dollar. Also, the COT report shows the commercial demand to sell, where the number of sales contracts exceeded 170,000 contracts. As the scheme appears at the beginning of 2020 when the number of sales contracts reached 133 thousand contracts. The Canadian dollar fell nearly 9% against the US dollar.

Therefore, the Canadian dollar is expected to rise towards the level 1.23 against the US dollar in the coming days.